Treasury Bond Buybacks Seen as Catalyst for New Bitcoin Bull Run, Says Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, released a research note linking the U.S. Treasury’s upcoming bond‑buyback expansion to a new bullish phase for Bitcoin.

Treasury Buyback Expansion

Starting September 9, the Treasury will double the maximum size of long‑bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The program is scheduled to run through November 4 and is part of a broader plan that allocates $38 billion for liquidity‑support purchases and $25 billion for short‑maturity cash‑management buybacks during the quarter.

Impact on Yields and Risk Assets

Hayes notes that purchasing older, longer‑dated Treasury securities should raise their prices and push yields lower—around 4.65% for the 10‑year and 5.20% for the 30‑year at the time of the announcement. Lower yields make risk assets such as Bitcoin more attractive to investors seeking higher returns.

Bitcoin Momentum

Bitcoin has been trading above $80,000 for two consecutive days, reaching an intraday high of $81,000. The price rise coincides with roughly $517 million of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, adding additional buying pressure.

Maelstrom’s Position

Hayes described his fund as operating at “maximum risk,” with significant exposure to Bitcoin, Ether, ENA and ETHFI. He argues that avoiding risk assets in the current environment would be a mistake.

Distinguishing Buybacks from QE

While similar to Federal Reserve quantitative easing in effect, Treasury buybacks are a debt‑management tool aimed at improving market liquidity and reducing borrowing costs, not a direct injection of new money.

Outlook

Hayes predicts Bitcoin could move past $110,000 in the near term, with longer‑term targets extending toward $200,000.