Ben Cowen Estimates 65% Chance Bitcoin Bear Market Will Continue, Targets $53,000 Realized Price

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $78,300, down 1.7% in the last 24 hours, as analyst Ben Cowen maintains a bearish outlook despite a recent summer rally.

Why Cowen Remains Bearish

Cowen notes that Bitcoin has already recovered roughly 40% from its summer trough, but similar rebounds in 2018 and 2022 were followed by further declines in the fourth quarter of those years. He warns that assuming the pattern has broken would repeat past mistakes.

Key Level: $53,000 Realized Price

The analyst points to Bitcoin’s realized price – the aggregate cost basis of all holders – which sits near $53,000. Historically, every mid‑term‑year bear market bottom has fallen below this threshold, though the exact month has varied.

Odds and Timeline

Cowen assigns a 65% chance that the low is still ahead and a 35% chance it has already passed. He suggests that if Bitcoin can close October without a lower low, bullish odds would improve. He expects time‑based capitulation risk over the next month and a half, with a gradual shift toward bullish sentiment as the fourth quarter progresses.

Outlook and Strategy

Should bears capitulate, Cowen says he would adjust his bias and anticipates a bullish stance heading into 2027, regardless of the current year’s outcome. He recommends a dollar‑cost‑averaging approach rather than trying to pinpoint the exact bottom, noting this is not financial advice.