Bernstein predicts Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026

Bernstein’s latest research report projects that Bitcoin (BTC) will recover from its recent decline and reach $125,000 by the end of 2026. The firm bases its outlook on the cryptocurrency’s historical four‑year halving cycles.

Mid‑term outlook

In the base‑case scenario, Bernstein expects Bitcoin to climb to $150,000 by mid‑2027 and to a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. The bull case raises those figures to $200,000 by mid‑2027 and $500,000 by 2029.

Long‑term target

Both scenarios maintain a longer‑term price target of roughly $1 million for Bitcoin by 2033. The forecasts rely on the relationship between price and the marginal cost of production, assuming the price‑to‑cost multiple will follow patterns observed in previous cycles.

Implications for corporate Bitcoin holders

Bernstein notes that institutional and corporate buyers, such as MicroStrategy, provide downside support that may limit drawdowns compared with earlier cycles. The firm kept an “Outperform” rating on MicroStrategy but lowered its price target from $450 to $350, citing equity dilution and the updated Bitcoin outlook. MicroStrategy holds about 840,447 BTC, roughly 4% of the total supply.

Potential buying activity

The analysts suggest that a stronger Bitcoin price, combined with a recovery in MicroStrategy’s preferred stock (STRC) toward $100, could enable the company to resume larger Bitcoin purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026.