Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over and September Is a ‘Nothing Month', Says Eric Crown

Technical analyst Eric Crown states that the Bitcoin bear market concluded with August’s close, when BTC settled at $78,581 on Binance, surpassing his $65,708 threshold by roughly $12,900. He views the probability of further upside as higher than a decline.

September Outlook

Crown characterises September as a “nothing month,” expecting limited movement and an early pullback before October. Historical data shows September’s median return is near flat, with the first half of the month typically losing about 8.5% and the second half gaining around 6.5%.

Potential Pullback Levels

The analyst anticipates an early dip toward the weekly five‑period exponential moving average (5 EMA) at approximately $73,294, about 5% below the current price. He estimates a 71.5% chance of BTC touching this level in any given week. The worst‑case support he cites is the weekly 21 EMA near $70,923, aligning with other technical zones.

Strategic Positioning

Crown plans to add to long‑term Bitcoin positions on the first September dip rather than engage in short‑term trading. He notes that a larger retracement, typically 10%–15%, tends to occur about 60 days after a major upward move, pointing to October as the next significant phase.

Contrasting Views

Other analysts, such as Benjamin Cowen, argue Bitcoin remains significantly below fair value and may not bottom until November, suggesting a possible 10%–15% correction into the mid‑$70,000 range before a steadier climb.