Bitcoin bear market ends as profitability metric turns bullish

On August 26, 2026, CryptoQuant’s on‑chain analytics indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) has moved out of its bear market, as its Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator posted a positive reading of 0.042 for the first time since October 2025.

Profitability metric signals a bullish shift

The Bull/Bear indicator is derived from CryptoQuant’s P&L Index, which aggregates three on‑chain profitability measures: the market‑value‑to‑realized‑value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). The index compares current values to a 365‑day moving average; values above zero are interpreted as bullish phases.

Historical context and recent performance

During the deepest bear conditions on February 5, 2026, Bitcoin fell to $60,000 and the Bull/Bear indicator registered –1.244, classifying the market as “extreme bear.” The recent positive reading mirrors a similar turnaround that occurred in early 2023, when the same metric first signaled the end of the previous bear cycle.

Market sentiment remains mixed

Despite the bullish signal, some analysts caution that insufficient liquidity could hinder a sustained price rally. Trader Rekt Capital highlighted the August monthly close as a pivotal moment, noting a potential breakout from a downward‑sloping resistance trend line that has been in place since October 2025.