Global ETF Demand May Drive Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Peak

Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju predicts that the peak of Bitcoin’s current bull cycle will be driven by institutional money and exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) outside the United States. He points to the recent U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 as the first wave of regulated exposure and argues that similar products in other jurisdictions could spark the next surge.

International ETF Access as a New Demand Source

Ju highlights South Korea as a case study where spot Bitcoin ETFs are not yet available, retail investors cannot purchase foreign‑listed spot ETFs, and many companies lack the ability to open exchange accounts for Bitcoin. The country’s Financial Services Commission is rolling out a phased roadmap for corporate participation, but significant gaps remain. Ju suggests that widespread retail access—such as a regional banker recommending a spot Bitcoin ETF to an individual saver—could signal the cycle’s top.

Institutional Infrastructure and Tokenization

According to Strategy’s Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index, major banks show only 32 % overall adoption of digital‑asset services, indicating ample room for growth. Tokenized real‑world assets (RWAs) are also expanding; RWA.xyz reported a global market value of $38.63 billion, up 2.65 % over the prior 30 days. These tokenized products move claims on assets like government securities onto blockchain platforms, creating new settlement and transfer mechanisms.

Stablecoin Liquidity as a Supporting Layer

The Bank for International Settlements notes that stablecoins can enable faster, programmable payments, though they also pose financial‑integrity and liquidity risks. Deeper stablecoin markets could provide institutions with additional liquidity for trading, settlement, and cross‑border transfers as regulated access widens.

Implications for Bitcoin’s Next Phase

Ju observes that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted roughly $57 billion in net inflows in their first two years. He expects the next phase to be “global institutionalization” with more institutions holding Bitcoin as a strategic asset, broader ETF distribution, and enhanced stablecoin and RWA infrastructure in markets that currently lack such products.