Bitcoin Bull Market Hinges on $85K Support and Fresh Buying, Bitfinex Analysts Say

Bitcoin is trading within a tight $85,000–$86,500 buyer‑cost range after peaking at $87,392, the highest level since late January. Bitfinex analysts argue that sustained buying from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries is essential for the rally to evolve into a lasting bull market.

Key price levels and buyer cost concentration

Bitfinex Alpha’s September 23 report identifies the $85,000–$86,500 band as the largest recent concentration of buyer cost bases, encompassing roughly 633,000 BTC. Holding this range would indicate that participants who entered during the rally are willing to stay positioned through a pullback.

Support and resistance outlook

• Strong support: corporate treasury cost near $80,500, with a critical floor around $81,300.
• Resistance: the yearly open at $87,722 and the $90,000 level if ETF inflows remain positive.

ETF inflows and corporate purchases

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $1.71 billion on September 21‑22, the largest daily inflow since October 2025. Over four sessions ending September 22, the funds absorbed $2.31 billion (≈27,900 BTC). Corporate activity included purchases of 950 BTC by Strategy and 1,355 BTC by Strive, both below the estimated $80,500 average cost for the corporate cohort.

On‑chain profitability metrics

The share of Bitcoin supply held at a profit rose from 63 % on September 17 to 78.2 % on September 22. Bitfinex analysts aim to keep this metric above 75 % during the first correction. The market‑value‑to‑realized‑value (MVRV) ratio stood at 1.62, below its long‑run average of ~1.8, which corresponds to a price near $95,000 at current realized values.

Potential scenarios

If Bitcoin maintains price above the $85,000–$86,500 range and ETF inflows stay net positive, the next test could be a move toward $90,000. Conversely, a sustained break below $81,300, especially with ETF outflows, would challenge the bullish outlook.