Bitcoin Bull Market Setup Mirrors 2015, Willy Woo Says as Debate Grows

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo highlighted a widening gap between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, suggesting the market may be entering a phase similar to the pre‑2017 bull run that began in 2015. Woo’s chart shows the longest divergence in nearly a decade, prompting speculation that Bitcoin liquidity is strengthening while equities show signs of weakness.

Woo’s 2015 Comparison

Woo posted a long‑term BTC‑to‑S&P 500 chart, noting that the last time Bitcoin decoupled to this extent was in 2015, a period that preceded the 2017 rally. He described 2014 as a bullish stock environment with a bearish Bitcoin market, followed by 2015‑2016 when Bitcoin entered “bull mode” as equities fell, before both assets aligned in 2017. Woo argues that today’s setup mirrors that pattern, with Bitcoin liquidity rising and equity markets appearing fragile.

Counterpoint from Cryptoquant Contributor

Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost shared a separate chart covering Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and their correlation coefficient from January 2020 to July 2026. The correlation remained positive, fluctuating between positive and negative values but never entering a sustained negative zone. Darkfost questioned the calculation method used by Woo, suggesting a higher‑timeframe average may have produced the apparent decoupling.

Impact of Calculation Windows

Correlation readings depend on the selected period, data frequency, and treatment of non‑trading days. Woo’s chart references Glassnode data but does not disclose the exact settings. Bloomberg Intelligence reported a 200‑day Bitcoin‑equity correlation near 0.5 on April 12, indicating a moderately positive relationship over a longer horizon. Shorter windows can show lower or near‑zero correlation, while longer windows incorporate earlier co‑movement.

Broader Market Context

Other data points support a shifting relationship. Grayscale noted record U.S. household equity exposure and high stock valuations, suggesting potential vulnerability to equity‑market reversals. Bitwise data showed Bitcoin’s 90‑day correlation with gold rising above 0.5, while Glassnode data indicated Bitcoin’s 30‑day correlation with the S&P 500 moving toward zero during the August rally.

Conclusion

Woo’s bullish outlook rests on multiple factors: strengthening Bitcoin liquidity, perceived equity fragility, and the historical parallel to 2015. The debate centers on the relevance of the chosen correlation window, leaving the strength of the decoupling open to interpretation.