Bitcoin dip‑buying rises as futures rebuild despite weak spot demand

Bitcoin closed at $75,702 on Tuesday, a 3.2% decline that pushed the price below the $77,100 range floor for a third session. The drop ended a 24‑day trading band that had held from August 21 to early September.

Futures market shows dip‑buying activity

Global Bitcoin futures open interest fell by $1.7 billion during the price slide on September 15 but rebounded to $52.15 billion the next morning, staying slightly above pre‑decline levels. Funding rates remained positive, though not at overheated levels, allowing traders to add long exposure as the price formed lower highs and lower lows.

Aggregated cumulative volume delta indicated increased buy‑side taker activity after the breach of $77,100, a pattern Bitfinex describes as “dip‑buying” in perpetual markets. Liquidations on September 15 removed about $571 million in long positions, with Bitcoin and Ethereum each accounting for roughly $190 million of that total.

Spot demand remains muted

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450.4 million of net outflows, led by Fidelity’s FBTC ($214.8 million) and BlackRock’s IBIT ($161.7 million), which together made up 84% of the daily total. The outflow ranks among the largest since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.

Coinbase’s spot discount widened to 0.08%, its deepest since mid‑August, suggesting weaker demand on the U.S. exchange relative to other venues. Exchange inflows of coins held for less than 155 days rose to 33,100 BTC, with 23,200 BTC arriving at a loss—the highest monthly figure.

Key support levels and potential downside

Bitfinex identified a primary support zone between $74,985 and $75,412, incorporating Tuesday’s low, the average cost basis of a large holder (Strategy), and a prior liquidation cluster. A break below this area could expose the $73,500 cost basis of investors who bought in the past three to six months.

Further downside targets include $71,300, a concentration point for short‑term holders, and the broader $62,500‑$71,000 range that would signal a return to a bear‑market regime.

Broader market context

Bitcoin’s 10‑day correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.76, while correlation with the Nasdaq 100 increased to 0.66, reflecting heightened alignment with equity markets. Over the same period, correlation with gold fell to 0.51. The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed from 4.8% to 5%, raising the relative attractiveness of yield‑bearing assets compared with non‑yielding Bitcoin.