Bitcoin and Ethereum Hold Near Recent Peaks as US‑Iran Talks Raise Hormuz Reopening Prospects

Bitcoin and Ethereum have remained near their recent highs while diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran have brought a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz into focus. A possible reopening could lower oil prices, easing inflation and Treasury‑yield pressures that have weighed on risk assets.

Hormuz Proposal and Market Reaction

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran has offered a seven‑day plan that would end hostilities, release at least $12 billion in frozen assets, grant sanctions waivers for Iranian oil and lift the U.S. naval blockade. If the conditions are met, the strait would be reopened at the end of the seventh day, paving the way for comprehensive nuclear talks.

Following the signal, WTI crude fell more than 2.5 % to around $89 a barrel and Brent slipped below $98. Bitcoin was trading close to $86,000 at that time and later settled near $84,000 after briefly reaching $87,392. Ethereum hovered around $2,600 after a recent rejection near $2,800.

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on September 16, leaving the 10‑year Treasury yield at 5.11 % and the 30‑year at 5.40 %. Rising oil prices earlier in the month had pushed Brent above $100, adding to inflation concerns.

Despite the high‑yield environment, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $2.65 billion in net inflows over five sessions through September 23, and wallets holding 100‑1,000 BTC accumulated 113,950 BTC from mid‑July to September 23. Ethereum ETFs also saw inflows of $162.2 million on September 22 and $105 million the next day.

Technical Outlook

Bitcoin faces resistance around $86,700‑$87,400, with the $82,000 level acting as a key support. A break above $87,400 could revive the January yearly open near $87,722.

Ethereum needs to reclaim $2,700 before challenging the recent high of $2,789. Support lies near $2,648, with deeper liquidity around $2,630 and $2,532‑$2,550.

Potential Impact of a Lasting Reopening

A sustained reopening of the strait would likely reduce oil price volatility, easing inflation expectations and potentially lowering Treasury yields. Such a shift could improve the macro backdrop for Bitcoin and Ethereum, supporting further price advances.

Conversely, if negotiations stall and the strait remains closed, oil prices could rise again, keeping yields elevated and maintaining pressure on crypto markets.