Bitcoin Slides Below $76,000 as CLARITY Act Odds Drop Ahead of Senate Vote

Bitcoin slipped below $76,000 on Tuesday, retreating from Monday’s gains as traders reduced the perceived likelihood of the Senate advancing the CLARITY Act. The price settled at $76,018, down 3.1% over the past 24 hours.

Market Reaction to Legislative Odds

Prediction market Polymarket priced the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law at 12.5% on Tuesday morning, down from 29.5% on Monday afternoon. A related market showed the odds of securing more than 50 Senate votes at 41%, a drop of 36.5 points in 24 hours.

Broader Crypto Price Moves

Most of the 124 largest non‑stablecoin tokens fell, with 95 declining and 29 rising. Notable price changes included:

• Ether: $2,411.62, down 3.7%.
• XRP: $1.39, down 0.8%.
• Solana: $99.01, down 2.6%.
• BNB: $716.87, down 0.6%.
• Rain (prediction‑market token): down over 20% in seven days, the steepest decline among the top 20 tokens.
• Filecoin: down 12.1% on the day but up 1.9% weekly.
• Arbitrum (ARB): up 3.3% daily, despite a 20.1% weekly drop.
• Akedo (AKE): surged to $0.02703, the biggest gainer among the top 150 tokens.
• Monero and Stellar: each rose about 1%.

Derivatives and Volatility

Options markets showed little reaction to the legislative news. Bitcoin options implied volatility remained around 38‑39%, with neutral skew for short‑term contracts. Ether options displayed a slightly positive skew.

Fed Meeting and Yield Curve

The Federal Reserve began a two‑day policy meeting, with Polymarket pricing an 86.5% chance of a quarter‑point rate hike. The 10‑year Treasury yield traded at 5.00%, the highest level since 2007.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $159.9 million on Monday, led by BlackRock’s IBIT ($134.3 million) and Fidelity’s FBTC ($53.3 million). This reversed a week of outflows totaling $462.7 million.

Overall Market Snapshot

The total crypto market value stood at $2.71 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 56.2%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 69 (greed), up from 57 on Monday.