Bitcoin Is Trading Like Gold Again, Bitwise Says the Last Time Was 2020

Bitwise’s latest data shows Bitcoin’s 90‑day correlation with the spot price of gold has risen above 0.5, a level not seen since the fiscal and monetary stimulus of 2020. The correlation indicates a stronger co‑movement between the two hard assets as macro pressures intensify.

Correlation Milestones

The rolling 90‑day correlation, calculated from data spanning April 2015 to August 31 2026, crossed the 0.5 threshold for only the second time on record. The previous peak occurred in 2020, following extensive stimulus measures during the Covid crisis.

Implications for Investors

Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch noted that the rise suggests a decoupling from the stock market, with investors treating Bitcoin more like an amplified version of gold when faced with currency debasement risks. Concurrently, Bitcoin’s 30‑day correlation with the S&P 500 fell toward zero during August, while its correlation with the dollar index turned negative.

Macro backdrop

U.S. national debt surpassed $40 trillion on August 18, more than double its 2017 level, now standing at $40.13 trillion. The Treasury responded by announcing a doubling of its liquidity‑support bond buybacks, increasing purchases of 10‑ to 30‑year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation starting September 9.

Two‑Scenario Outlook

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan outlined a binary view: if economic growth reduces debt, AI‑related stocks could outperform; if inflation is used to erode debt, Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it a favorable hedge. He recommends holding both assets to cover either scenario.

Current market snapshot

Bitcoin is trading just above $81,000, up nearly 5 % in 24 hours after briefly touching $82,000. Gold rebounded about 2 % on September 3 to roughly $4,490 per ounce as Treasury yields and the dollar eased from multi‑year highs.

Analyst perspectives

Glassnode analysts caution that sudden decorrelations from equities have historically been short‑lived, reflecting temporary market exhaustion rather than a lasting regime shift. Dragosch, however, suggests that if the gold‑Bitcoin correlation endures, Bitcoin may transition from a risk asset to a primary hedge over the next fifteen years.