Bitcoin Holds Price After Fed Rate Hike and Senate Vote, On‑Chain Data Signals Weakening

Bitcoin (BTC) endured two macro events within two days: the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to a 3.75%‑4.00% range and the U.S. Senate rejected the CLARITY Act, which would have clarified digital‑asset regulation. Despite these shocks, the spot price stayed near $76,300, up 0.58% over 24 hours but down 2.5% for the week.

Market Reaction to the News

Both events were largely priced in before they were announced. The price moved only modestly, rising from about $75,350 to above $76,100 after the Fed statement. However, daily closes revealed stress: Bitcoin closed below the True Market Mean (TMM) of $76,700 for the second consecutive day, a level that has anchored the range since late August.

On‑Chain Indicators Show Capital Outflows

• Bitcoin funds experienced $450.33 million of outflows on the day the CLARITY Act failed.
• Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together saw $592 million of outflows, the deepest single‑day ETF withdrawals in months.
• Realized cap, which values each coin at its last price, turned negative on September 15 after 27 days of growth.
• Stablecoin supply, a proxy for cash ready to enter the market, remained flat around $301 billion.
• Corporate holders bought roughly 5,900 BTC over the past three months, far below the 89,000 BTC purchased in July 2025, leaving many positions underwater.

Potential Support and Resistance Levels

The next cost‑basis level for short‑term holders sits near $71,300, while deeper support is identified around $62,000‑$65,000 and $61,000. Resistance is clustered between $83,000 and $86,000, where long‑term holder supply is strongest.

Outlook

Analyst Willy Woo estimates a 90% probability that the current low is the bottom, citing a possible early bull‑market structure if long‑term liquidity returns. Contrastingly, on‑chain data points to reduced inflows from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate treasuries. Seasonal patterns suggest September may be a low‑activity month, with October often viewed as a potential bottoming period.

Two consecutive closes above the TMM would be needed to re‑establish the prior range, but that would likely require fresh capital inflows.