Bitcoin loses touch with Dollar Index and U.S. stocks ahead of Fed decision

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $75,888 and shows an idiosyncratic pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest‑rate decision on Wednesday. Short‑window correlations that usually tie Bitcoin to the Dollar Index and U.S. equities have faded.

Correlation shifts

CoinMarketCap data indicate Bitcoin’s 15‑day‑or‑less correlation to the Dollar Index is now +0.08, down from a 30‑day average of –0.54. Its correlation to the S&P 500 fell to 0.43 from 0.75, to the Nasdaq 0.30 from 0.60, and to gold 0.28 from 0.69 over the same period.

Regulatory focus drives the disconnect

The recent Senate procedural vote on the Clarity Act, which failed on Tuesday, shifted trader attention away from traditional macro drivers. With weaker links to the broader market, hedging strategies that rely on Bitcoin tracking risk assets—such as shorting S&P 500 futures against a long Bitcoin position—are now less reliable.

Fed decision as a test

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at 2 p.m. ET. The move is largely priced in, and most banks still anticipate additional hikes before year‑end. Unless Chair Kevin Warsh signals a larger increase or adopts a more hawkish stance, the Dollar Index could weaken, which would be a tailwind for Bitcoin.

Other market factors

Traders should monitor Treasury yields, as heightened volatility could tighten financial conditions and trigger risk‑off flows across crypto assets. A sharp rise in yield volatility may outweigh the impact of the Fed’s rate hike itself.

Technical signal

Bitcoin’s hourly chart shows a range breakdown below $76,000 after a period of tight consolidation since August 20. Analysts view this bearish signal as a potential catalyst for further downside.