Bitcoin may be leaving its 4-year cycle behind for a 6-to-8-year Wall Street rhythm

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo suggests the cryptocurrency’s price cycles could be shifting from the traditional four‑year halving rhythm to a longer 6‑to‑8‑year pattern that aligns more closely with Wall Street’s short‑term debt cycle.

Institutional capital outweighs miner supply

Data shows that public companies and exchange‑traded products now hold over 2.7 million BTC, more than 16 times the amount newly minted by miners each year. After the 2028 halving, annual miner issuance is expected to fall to about 82,125 BTC, further widening the gap.

Halving impact is shrinking

The April 2024 halving reduced the block reward to 3.125 BTC, limiting new supply to roughly 0.82 % of the circulating stock. The next halving in 2028 will cut issuance to about 0.41 % of today’s supply, making each supply shock smaller as institutional holdings grow.

Research on cycle patterns

Galaxy Research (June) and a 21Shares mid‑year review both note that the four‑year cycle remains visible but its amplitude is compressing. Fidelity Digital Assets argues that Bitcoin’s larger market cap and broader institutional base could alter future cycle dynamics.

Implications for future price moves

Woo argues that credit conditions, global liquidity, and portfolio flows may become the dominant drivers of major market turns, reducing the relative influence of halving events.