Bitcoin May Hit Turning Point This Week as Durable Bottom Takes Shape

Crypto asset manager Grayscale noted on August 22 that a sharp weekly rally may signal a turning point for Bitcoin after a comparatively shallow bear market. The rally lifted Bitcoin to $79,500, its highest level since May, and broke a prolonged trading range.

Shallower Decline Compared with Past Cycles

Grayscale’s chart compares the current drawdown, which began after the October 2025 peak, with four previous cycles (June 2011, December 2013, December 2017, November 2021). The current decline is about 50% from its peak, whereas earlier cycles fell roughly 80% before bottoming.

Supporting Market Signals

Research from VanEck identified several capitulation signals active in mid‑August, suggesting the correction may be in its later stages. VanEck’s analysis also points to a larger institutional holder base and the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs as factors that could produce a shallower trough.

ETF Inflows Reinforce Demand

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds recorded roughly $1.92 billion of net inflows over five sessions, ending on August 21, and held total net assets of $96.07 billion. The inflows indicate demand beyond forced buying from short‑seller liquidations.

Outlook and Risks

Grayscale cautioned that higher interest rates, weaker liquidity, fund redemptions, or profit‑taking could still pressure prices. Nevertheless, the firm suggested the market may have reached a more durable bottom.