Bitcoin Falls Below $85K as Analysts Discuss Potential $100K Move

Bitcoin slipped below $85,000 on September 24, 2026, trading around $83,450, while the broader crypto market showed modest declines. The dip comes as analysts revisit scenarios that could push the leading cryptocurrency toward the $100,000 milestone later in the year.

Price Recovery and Technical Indicators

Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin reclaimed its 365‑day moving average near $80,500. Historically, trading above this level has coincided with stronger market regimes. Glassnode on‑chain data highlighted a shallower drawdown compared with previous bear phases and indicated that profit‑taking remains restrained.

On‑Chain Activity

• Net realized profit levels are similar to those seen in late 2023, well below the peaks of earlier euphoric periods.
• Short‑term holders are largely back in profit, but realized gains are modest, suggesting gradual distribution rather than mass exits.
• Overall selling pressure appears lighter than during comparable rallies in 2024 and 2025.

PlanB’s October Scenario

PlanB, the analyst behind the stock‑to‑flow model, presented a scenario that would see Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October, surpass the previous $126,000 record before Christmas, and potentially climb toward $232,000 in 2027‑2028. He emphasized that the outline is “food for thought” rather than a firm prediction. The scenario assumes Bitcoin holds above $80,500 and that demand continues to absorb new supply.

Four‑Year Cycle Debate

Some market observers note that Bitcoin’s peak on October 6, 2025, aligns with the traditional four‑year cycle, which historically sees a bottom 12‑13 months later. Historical cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) took roughly 350‑410 days to reach their lows. However, Glassnode argues that the current bear market is less deep—price remains about 30% below its peak—contrasting with earlier cycles that were more than twice as deep at a similar stage.

Risk Factors and Market Sentiment

Prediction markets currently assign roughly a 40% probability to Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year. The key risk remains whether Bitcoin can maintain support above its long‑term moving average and keep profit‑taking under control. If demand wanes or the four‑year cycle reasserts itself, a further test could occur before a definitive market recovery is declared.

Related Trading Activity

An options trader placed a $3.17 million bet targeting a price of $95,000 by October 30, reflecting heightened interest in the upside scenario.