Bitcoin Holds Near $79K as Cycle Drawdown Narrows

Bitcoin stabilized near $79,200 on Sept. 9, marking a recovery from its June low and suggesting a shallower decline than previous bear markets.

Cycle drawdown comparison

Wintermute highlighted that the deepest loss in the current cycle was about a 50% drawdown, notably less than the 77%‑83% declines recorded in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. At $79,200, Bitcoin sits roughly 37% below its October 2025 record high of $125,653, not the 50% figure sometimes cited.

Spot ETF inflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $987 million for the week ending Sept. 4, marking a third consecutive week of positive flows and bringing total recent inflows to roughly $3.8 billion. The largest single‑day inflow was $731 million on Sept. 3, followed by $175 million on Sept. 4.

Macro backdrop

Stronger‑than‑expected U.S. payroll data (162,000 jobs added in August, unemployment steady at 4.1%) pushed Bitcoin briefly below $80,000 but the price retained much of its weekly gain. The data also tempered expectations of near‑term Federal Reserve easing.

Technical outlook

Bitcoin moved above its 200‑day simple moving average during the August rally. The relative strength index sits at 62.18, indicating positive but cooling momentum. The MACD remains above zero but shows a weakening short‑term trend.

Key price levels

• Upper reference: $82,000 – clearing this level would support a continued uptrend.
• Lower reference: $72,000 – a break below could weaken the current bullish view.

Upcoming catalysts

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Sept. 15‑16 and the next inflation release will test Bitcoin’s resilience amid potential rate adjustments. Continued spot ETF inflows could reinforce institutional demand, while outflows might pressure the price, especially if it falls toward $72,000.