Bitcoin Price is Moving Like Gold, and Grayscale Says It's No Coincidence

Grayscale’s research team reported that Bitcoin’s 90‑day correlation with gold has risen from near zero at the start of the year to above 50%. In the same period, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq‑100 fell from over 60% to roughly 33%.

How the Shift Was Measured

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl highlighted the change in a recent note, attributing it to growing investor focus on Bitcoin’s scarcity, monetary independence, and potential as a store of value. The analysis did not include a specific price target.

Implications of a Higher Gold Correlation

The rise in correlation suggests that some investors may be treating Bitcoin similarly to traditional hard‑asset hedges amid concerns about fiat currency purchasing power. This aligns with the “debasement trade” narrative, which posits that supply‑capped assets gain appeal when government debt and fiscal deficits increase.

Broader Context

Grayscale’s earlier research linked Bitcoin’s price action to the debasement trade and noted that other scarce digital assets, such as Ethereum and Zcash, could benefit from the same market dynamics. The firm cautioned that correlation measures past co‑movement and does not predict future price direction.