Bitcoin price tests $78K as bearish divergence grows

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $79,000 on September 9, trading near $78,900 after a decline from $81,271 on September 4. The price briefly touched $78,455 before buyers pushed it back toward the $79,000 level.

Short‑term technical picture

On the 4‑hour chart, BTC is below the Bollinger Band midpoint at $79,187, which now acts as immediate resistance. The upper band sits near $80,292 and the lower band around $78,084. A break below the lower band could expose the intraday low near $78,450 and the psychological $78,000 level.

The 4‑hour ADX reads 18.31, indicating weak trend strength (values below 20 suggest a lack of a strong trend). This low momentum leaves the market vulnerable to sideways moves or sudden volatility when price reaches clustered liquidation zones.

Long‑term context

Despite the short‑term dip, BTC remains above its 10‑day simple moving average ($78,732) and well above the 20‑day SMA ($70,242). The 50‑day, 100‑day and 200‑day averages lie between roughly $66,700 and $70,000, showing that the broader recovery has not broken down.

The daily RSI is at 61.29, down from recent highs and below its signal average of 68.10, but still above the neutral 50 level.

Liquidity clusters and liquidation risk

CoinGlass’ 24‑hour liquidation heatmap highlights liquidity bands near $79,200‑$80,000 and $80,500‑$82,000 above the market, and around $78,000, $77,000 and $76,300 below. A move into the $79,200‑$80,000 zone could trigger short‑position liquidations, adding buying pressure. Conversely, a break below $78,000 could force long liquidations and push price toward $77,000 and potentially $76,000.

Bearish divergence signal

Analyst Gerla noted a bearish divergence between price and RSI: BTC is making higher highs while RSI records lower highs. This pattern suggests weakening momentum but does not confirm a reversal. Gerla indicated that a confirmed break below the channel support near $76,000 would activate the bearish scenario, while a move above $84,000 would weaken it.

Potential scenarios

• Holding above $78,000 keeps BTC in a range between $78,000 and $80,300.
• A recovery above $79,200 could reopen the $80,000‑$80,300 target.
• A sustained break below $78,000 raises the likelihood of a move toward $77,000 and $76,000.

US Treasury yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain external factors that could influence demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin.