Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Spot ETF Inflows as Futures Leverage Declines

Bitcoin climbed from roughly $63,500 to above $80,000 in just over a week, with the move largely supported by spot buying rather than new leveraged positions.

Spot ETF inflows drive demand

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds attracted about $2.8 billion over eight consecutive sessions during the rally. The inflows were recorded across eight funds and represented the primary identifiable demand source.

Futures leverage contracts shrink

During the same period, Bitcoin‑denominated futures open interest fell from around 646,000 BTC to 588,000 BTC, indicating that traders closed net long positions. The decline suggests short covering and spot purchases, rather than aggressive new leveraged longs, powered the price rise.

ETF outflows test the trend

On August 28, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net withdrawal of $201.9 million, ending nine days of inflows. Major funds such as ARK 21Shares (ARKB) and Bitwise (BITB) posted outflows, while BlackRock’s IBIT and VanEck’s HODL also saw withdrawals. Despite the outflow, the funds accumulated roughly $924.5 million during the week of August 24‑28.

Inflation backdrop and monetary policy

July headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation was 3.7% year‑over‑year, with core PCE at 3.3%, both above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The data limit the Fed’s ability to ease policy, and market pricing indicated about a 35% chance of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike in September.

Upcoming Treasury liquidity operation

Starting September 9, the U.S. Treasury will double its long‑end buyback size to at least $4 billion per operation, aiming to improve liquidity in 10‑ to 30‑year securities. The program is not a form of quantitative easing and has no confirmed link to Bitcoin’s price action.

Outlook

The next test for Bitcoin will be whether spot ETF demand returns while futures funding remains contained. A gradual rise in open interest would suggest measured positioning, whereas rapid leverage growth could increase liquidation risk if prices reverse.