Bitcoin SOPR metric sees longest profit run of 2026 as new analysis challenges bear market

Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has stayed above its breakeven level of 1 for three consecutive weeks, marking the longest bullish stretch for the metric in 2026.

What SOPR Indicates

SOPR measures whether coins moving on‑chain are sold at a profit or a loss compared to their previous transaction price. A reading above 1 means most moved coins are in profit, a sign of bullish momentum. The current value is 1.002.

Breakdown by Wallet Cohort

Checkonchain notes that short‑term holders (wallets holding a UTXO for up to six months) are seeing profit‑making activity, a pattern more typical of early bull‑market recoveries than of bear markets.

Contrasting Views on Price Outlook

Despite the SOPR streak, ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell cautioned that downside risk remains for BTC/USD, which is trading around $80,000. Puell said the metric would need to stay above 1 for a longer period and be accompanied by higher highs and higher lows before he would shift his long‑term bias.

Broader Market Context

CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju described the bear market as potentially “over” based on its proprietary Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, though price action has yet to show a clear series of higher highs and higher lows on weekly charts.