Bitcoin Tests May Highs: Why Is This Time Different for Recent Buyers?

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back to $81,050 on Friday, matching the price it reached on May 14. While the market price is nearly unchanged, on‑chain metrics show a significant shift for recent buyers.

Short‑term holder cost basis reset

Glassnode’s short‑term holder MVRV rose to 1.1415 on September 3 from 1.0298 on May 14, despite the price being almost identical (May 14: $81,059.69; September 3: $81,261.98). The implied cost basis for coins younger than 155 days dropped from roughly $78,713 in May to about $71,188 now – a reduction of roughly $7,500.

This lower cost basis expands the profit margin for recent holders from a 2.9% buffer in May to a 12.4% buffer today, a four‑fold increase.

Profitability metrics

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) printed 1.0082 on September 3, indicating that coins moving on‑chain were transferred at just under 1% profit. By comparison, SOPR reached 1.086 in November 2024 and 1.179 in July 2025 during stronger breakouts.

Long‑term holders remain largely inactive, keeping the SOPR low. Weekly volume has been declining, and the recent breakout has not been repeated, suggesting limited spot participation.

Technical outlook

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is breaking a pattern of lower highs and lower lows that followed the $126,200 record. A weekly close above $82,842 would confirm the first higher high since that record. The current weekly high sits at $82,285, about $557 short of the trigger.

Resistance lies near the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $83,917. Support is defined by the 200‑day moving average at $69,664 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $70,855. The on‑chain cost basis at $71,188 creates a narrow band only 2.16% wide.

Momentum indicators show the daily RSI near 72 after a peak of 78 in late August, hinting at early bearish divergence, while the weekly RSI remains around 60.

Key levels to watch

• Resistance: $82,842 (weekly close) and $83,917 (Fibonacci 0.382)
• Support: $71,188 (on‑chain cost basis) and $69,664 (200‑day MA)

Above $83,917 would confirm a reversal; below $71,188 could erode the profit buffer for recent buyers.