VanEck Forecasts Bitcoin to Reach $100,000 Within a Year

VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia that Bitcoin (BTC) may hit $100,000 by next year. He linked the outlook to rising government debt burdens and recent shifts in market sentiment.

Current Price Action

Bitcoin traded around $77,403 on Friday, up 1.26% on the day and more than 20% over the past month, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The price remains about 39% below its all‑time high of over $126,000 set on 6 October 2025.

Macro Environment

The price movement occurred amid a “punishing policy week.” The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4% range, its first hike since 2023. The Bank of Japan also lifted its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995. In the United States, the Senate rejected cloture on the Clarity Act, stalling a market‑structure bill.

Sigel’s Reasoning

• He argues that over‑indebted governments are creating a fiscal environment that supports Bitcoin.
• Volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared with four years ago, indicating a break from the previous cycle.
• Traders are paying more for put options than call options, suggesting bearish hedging activity.
• The Treasury’s bond buyback program triggered short covering, providing upward pressure on Bitcoin.

Institutional Interest

Sigel said conversations with advisors and sovereign wealth funds indicate that institutional clients are increasing their Bitcoin exposure.

Target Levels

• To reach $100,000 from the current price, Bitcoin needs a 29% gain.
• Sigel’s 2029 target of $500,000 would require roughly a 546% increase.
• A longer‑term $1 million outlook implies a 1,192% rise from current levels.