Bitcoin climbs above $79,000 as oil prices retreat on Trump’s Iran war comments

Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $79,000 on Monday, gaining roughly 3% after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that the war with Iran may be nearing an end. The optimism lifted crypto markets even as oil prices fell amid uncertainty over Middle‑East shipping routes.

Market reaction to geopolitical news

Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran is “wanting to make a deal” and that the United States is open to engagement. The statement prompted a quick dip in oil prices, with U.S. WTI crude trading above $100 per barrel and Brent at $105 per barrel at the time of writing.

Bitcoin technical outlook

TradingView data showed BTC/USD erasing weekend losses and moving back above its 50‑week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,430. The 50‑week EMA is viewed by traders as a key support level for a potential bull‑market resurgence.

Fed rate‑hike expectations

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated a 92.7% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision, up from 59.4% a week earlier. Analysts at QCP Capital noted that sustained high oil prices could keep inflation pressures alive, influencing the Fed’s stance.

Broader market context

U.S. equities opened higher but later turned red, with the S&P 500 down about 0.3% as investors weighed the impact of possible disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline, and the Bab El‑Mandeb Strait.