Bitcoin Faces Volatility Ahead of CLARITY Act Vote and Fed Rate Decision

Bitcoin (BTC) entered the third week of September trading below key weekly support levels, prompting traders to watch for heightened volatility.

Fed rate decision

The Federal Reserve is expected to increase its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, moving the target range to 3.75‑4%. The outlook reflects persistent inflation pressures and rising oil prices, with the CME Group FedWatch Tool showing a 13.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged.

CLARITY Act procedural vote

On Tuesday, the Senate will hold a cloture vote on the CLARITY Act at 2:15 pm. The bill requires a 60‑vote threshold to advance to the floor for debate. Senate Republicans have presented a revised 635‑page proposal, describing it as the final version after a year of bipartisan negotiations.

Market positioning ahead of the events

Crypto sentiment platform Santiment reports that open interest (OI) in Bitcoin terms fell 13.5% during the week ending September 11, dropping from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC, while the spot price declined about 5%. The data suggests traders are reducing exposure ahead of the upcoming vote and rate announcement.

Technical outlook

Bitcoin closed the previous week around $76,800, below its 50‑week exponential moving average (≈ $77,380) and the $78,300 level identified as a key weekly support. Analysts note that a failure to hold these levels could reopen a downtrend, though the RSI continues to show a bullish divergence with higher lows.

Funding rates

On‑chain analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates that aggregate funding rates across exchanges have risen since the end of May, ending a negative‑rate period that began in early March. Higher funding rates typically signal growing long‑side sentiment.