William Blair sees entry point in Coinbase and growth potential for Circle as crypto market steadies

William Blair analysts view both Coinbase and Circle as positioned for a recovery in the cryptocurrency sector as market activity stabilizes.

Coinbase (COIN) – Attractive entry after strong price gain

Coinbase shares have risen about 31% since July 14. The firm’s spot‑trading volumes remain low, but analysts cut the 2026 EBITDA estimate by 11% to $810 million while keeping 2027‑2028 forecasts roughly unchanged, suggesting the outlook may be near a trough.

Key drivers cited include:

• Bitcoin’s rally and broader crypto market recovery.
• Increasing use of crypto as collateral for lending.
• Growth in tokenized real‑world assets, whose market cap rose to $39 billion from $26 billion at the end of 2025.

Coinbase’s newer businesses are gaining importance. Institutional and retail derivatives generated roughly $200 million in annualized revenue in Q1, and prediction markets produced about $100 million in Q2, together representing around 6% of projected 2026 revenue but expanding quickly.

Analysts argue that recent fee cuts for advanced traders were targeted at markets such as the U.K. and do not signal weakness in the core U.S. business.

Circle (CRCL) – USDC growth as the next catalyst

Circle’s stock has risen 52% since Bitcoin’s low on July 1. William Blair expects USDC’s market cap to track Bitcoin’s upward movement, albeit with a lag, and sees this as the primary driver of Circle’s next growth phase.

The firm’s long‑term value is tied to building a global stablecoin payments and transaction network rather than relying on reserve income. Analysts consider potential rival stablecoins to pose little threat to USDC’s market position.

Regulatory backdrop

The Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act leaves the stablecoin regulatory environment largely unchanged. The SEC and CFTC are expected to address remaining gaps through rulemaking, including a recent SEC exemption for tokenized‑equity trading.

William Blair maintains “outperform” ratings on both Coinbase and Circle shares.