Polymarket Predicts Democrats Have Slight Edge to Sweep Congress

Cryptocurrency‑based prediction platform Polymarket has adjusted its odds for the 2026 midterm elections, now giving Democrats a 51% chance of sweeping both the House and the Senate. The shift reflects recent declines in former President Donald Trump’s approval ratings and a surge in gasoline prices.

Odds Movement

Polymarket’s "Balance of Power" market shows Democrats at 51% overall, with the House at 89% and the Senate at 51%. A year ago the odds of a Democratic sweep were 26%, and one month ago they stood at 45%.

Factors Influencing the Market

• Trump’s approval ratings have fallen, with some surveys placing his support between 32% and 34%.
• Financial surveys indicate many Americans feel their finances have worsened under Trump, a sentiment shared by a majority of independents.
• Economic polls show Democrats edging Republicans on the economy, with a 37% to 36% split.
• National gasoline prices reached a record $4.056 per gallon in August, surpassing the previous high of $3.940 set in 2022.
• Geopolitical tensions, including the conflict with Iran and efforts to address Venezuelan oil supply, have kept energy markets volatile.

Outlook

With the election scheduled for November 3, the market will continue to reflect any changes in political sentiment, economic conditions, or energy prices. Whether Republicans can reverse the current trend remains uncertain.