Six Indicators Suggest Crypto Winter May Be Ending

Institutional newsletter Crypto Long & Short highlights six historical indicators that have marked the end of previous crypto winters. Analyst Denny Galindo of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management assesses whether these signals are present in the current market.

Four‑Year Cycle Framework

Digital assets have shown a pattern of roughly four‑year cycles, each consisting of a three‑year bull market followed by a 12‑ to 14‑month bear market, often called a crypto winter.

Six Signs of a Potential Crypto Spring

• Cycle timing: Historically, spring begins about 17 months before a Bitcoin halving and 12‑14 months after the prior peak. September aligns with both timelines.
• Exchange and institutional stress: Major exchanges have tended to fail or announce closures before a spring. BitMEX announced a September closure in July.
• Depth of drawdown: Prior winters saw Bitcoin fall 77%‑84% from peaks. The current drawdown of 53% (Oct 2025‑Jun 2026) is shallower but notable.
• Bitcoin mining difficulty: Difficulty usually declines at winter’s end and then rises as spring begins. Difficulty has fallen but not yet rebounded.
• Thermocap multiple: This metric compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the cumulative dollars paid to miners. Previous winters ended at single‑digit multiples; this cycle’s multiple fell to 13× as of late June 2026.
• Price rally from trough: A 50% rise from the low has historically coincided with market troughs, though no guarantee exists.

Key Debates Moving Forward

Two ongoing discussions are highlighted:

1. Whether Bitcoin will set a new all‑time high before the next halving. In earlier cycles, new highs arrived after the halving, but Bitcoin surpassed its 2021 peak a month before the April 2024 halving.
2. The role of AI versus crypto as the dominant speculative and disruptive‑technology narrative. Since 2024, AI has become a leading growth story, potentially shifting market focus.

Recent Market Highlights

• Bitcoin’s daily chart displayed a golden cross, a technical pattern some view as bullish.
• Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that regulatory clarity for the industry is likely regardless of the outcome of the Clarity Act vote.
• Maharashtra, India’s wealthiest state, is drafting a policy to tokenize power‑grid assets to fund infrastructure projects.
• Pump.fun introduced custom pools pairing meme tokens with non‑SOL assets, generating short‑term volume spikes.