Gemini stock down 80% revives takeover speculation

Gemini’s shares have lost roughly 80% of their value since the company went public, shrinking the market capitalisation from a peak of about $4 billion to roughly $753 million.

Financial decline

Second‑quarter exchange revenue fell 38% year‑over‑year to $12.5 million. Spot‑trading volume dropped 66% to $3.8 billion, and assets held on the platform fell to $8.4 billion from $18.2 billion.

Potential acquisition appeal

Despite the shrinking exchange business, Gemini retains valuable regulatory licences, a U.S. custody infrastructure and an established customer base. Industry observers note that acquiring such licences can be faster and cheaper than building them from scratch.

Analysts cite recent crypto‑sector M&A activity—such as Keyrock’s purchase of BlockFills’ trading assets and Ondo’s exploratory deal worth up to $500 million—as evidence that buyers are increasingly targeting regulatory and distribution assets.

Ownership and deal dynamics

The Winklevoss twins control about 94.5% of Gemini’s voting power, meaning any sale would require their approval. This concentration simplifies negotiations but also makes a hostile takeover virtually impossible.

ARK Invest’s digital‑assets research director suggested that offshore perpetual‑trading platform Hyperliquid could use Gemini as a regulated U.S. gateway, though no active bid has been reported.

Outlook

The reduced valuation may present a relatively inexpensive entry point for a buyer seeking Gemini’s licences, customer relationships and custody capabilities. Whether the twins would entertain a sale remains the key uncertainty.