CryptoQuant Signals a New Bitcoin Bull Market Pending Confirmation

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $80,244 after gaining 14.3% over the past week, bringing it within $3,000 of a level identified by research firms as a critical test for the market.

CryptoQuant’s Regime Shift Assessment

CryptoQuant’s latest report states that the recent rally has "flipped Bitcoin into a new market regime." The firm’s Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 in a single week, the highest reading since October 6 2025. Eight of its ten valuation metrics now show bullish signals. Spot demand is expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December, and spot and futures demand are growing together for the first time since early October 2025.

Confirmation Requirement

CryptoQuant says the bullish regime will be confirmed only after Bitcoin closes above its 365‑day moving average, which sits near $83,000. Until that daily close occurs, the firm describes the situation as an "initial phase of a new bull market" that still needs official confirmation.

Glassnode’s Parallel View

Glassnode’s analysis places key structural levels between $81,000 and $86,000. It notes that the first self‑custody cost‑basis shelf begins at $80,800, dealer gamma turns negative at $82,300, and a cluster of short‑liquidation levels extends to $86,000. The firm’s confirmation marker is a settled close above $83,300 with sustained ETF demand.

Holder Activity and Market Sentiment

Long‑term holders have begun distributing Bitcoin, with net supply turning negative – a monthly average of minus 21,000 BTC, reversing a prior net inflow of plus 286,000 BTC in early June. Realized profits have risen, with short‑term holders booking close to $1 billion in profit over the past week. Despite these sales, counterbalancing demand has kept price support.

CryptoQuant also highlighted elevated trader unrealized profit at 20.5% (the highest since June 2025) and a record $614 million in whale realized profits on August 20. Santiment data shows weighted sentiment turning negative for the first time since the rally began.

Potential Weakness Levels

Glassnode identifies $70,000 as the first weakness point for short‑term holders, with a floor between $62,000 and $65,000 supported by recent buyers.