Prediction‑Market Odds Show Downside Risk for ETH, SOL and XRP Through 2026

Despite an August rally, prediction‑market participants are pricing significant downside risk for three of the largest altcoins. Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi indicate that Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) and XRP could see further declines before the end of 2026, even as some traders maintain modest recovery expectations.

Ethereum draws the most betting volume

Polymarket’s ETH price‑target market has recorded about $12.9 million in volume, while Kalshi’s year‑end ETH contract has handled roughly $12 million. At the time of reporting, ETH was trading around $2,441.

• Polymarket assigns a 77 % chance that ETH will touch $2,250 before Dec 31 2026.
• Probability of reaching $2,000 is 45 %; odds drop to 21 % for $1,750 and 14 % for $1,500.
• Upside odds are lower: 48 % for $3,000, 25 % for $3,500, 15 % for $4,000, 6 % for $5,000, and 2 % for $10,000.
• Kalshi’s year‑end forecast centers on $2,610, with each $250 bracket between $2,000 and $2,749.99 carrying roughly 10‑11 % probability.

XRP shows split between decline and rebound bets

At 1:30 p.m. EDT, XRP was priced at $1.37.

• Polymarket gives a 73 % chance of XRP falling to $1.20 and a 40 % chance of dropping to $1.00.
• Odds of a slide to $0.80 stand at 16 %.
• Kalshi’s maximum‑price market shows a 44 % probability of XRP exceeding $2.00, 29 % for $2.50, and 23 % for $3.00.

Solana’s odds reflect a wide trading range

Solana was trading at $101.41.

• Polymarket assigns a 67 % chance of SOL touching $90 and a 63 % chance of reaching $120.
• Probability of $160 is 25 % and $200 is 11 %.
• Kalshi gives a 35 % chance of SOL exceeding $150, 30 % for $160, and 28 % for $170.

Methodology differences affect odds

Polymarket uses Binance one‑minute price candles, while Kalshi relies on CF Benchmarks indexes and its own settlement rules. These methodological variations can lead to divergent probabilities for the same price levels.

Implications for traders

The odds suggest that market participants are hedging against further declines while keeping modest upside scenarios alive. As the Dec 31 2026 deadline approaches, probabilities are expected to shift, and betting activity may become more actionable.