Ethereum Breaks a Year-Long Pattern. The Chart Still Has One Warning

Ethereum has printed a higher high for the first time in more than a year, breaking a resistance zone that previously halted rallies. The move has sparked discussion about the cryptocurrency’s near‑term trajectory and whether it can push toward the $3,000 level.

Long‑term trend alignment

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen notes that ETH has re‑entered its long‑term logarithmic regression band, a range used to gauge the asset’s position relative to historical trends. He remarks that the current cycle no longer requires constant calls for ETH to “go home,” as the price is already within that band.

Recent price action

Ethereum peaked near $4,957 in August 2025. Subsequent rallies each produced lower highs, a pattern that persisted for over a year. This pattern was broken when ETH reached $2,807 this week, and the former resistance around $2,438 has now acted as support. The weekly RSI has risen to 64, and a move above $2,920 would bolster the case for a push toward $3,400.

Potential warning signs

Despite the higher highs, the daily RSI is forming lower highs, a bearish divergence that can indicate weakening momentum. Trading volume has also been declining. The key support line sits near $2,440; maintaining it keeps the bullish structure intact, while a break could expose the $1,950–$2,000 zone.

Outlook

Cowen suggests dollar‑cost averaging through the second half of the U.S. midterm election year, while acknowledging the possibility of another market shock later in Q4. Corporate treasuries continue to add ETH, providing additional demand support.