Ethereum Exchange Supply Hits Multi-Year Low as MVRV Momentum Turns Positive

Ethereum (ETH) exchange supply fell to roughly 15.5 million coins, the lowest level recorded in years. The decline represents a 38% drop from the May 2023 peak of about 25.2 million and follows a steady reduction since September 2025.

Exchange Supply Decline

Glassnode data shows the total ETH held on exchanges has contracted from around 21.5 million in June 2025 to the current 15.5 million. The drawdown occurred mainly after June 2025, while ETH price moved from about $4,850 to $1,550 during the same period.

MVRV Ratio Turns Positive

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio rose above its 160‑day moving average in late August, reaching approximately 1.05 versus a 0.88 average. This crossover ended a nine‑month negative momentum stretch that began in November 2025.

Current Price Context

ETH is trading near $2,464, just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of $2,438.85, which previously acted as resistance from March to May. Technical indicators show a cooling RSI around 60 and a Bollinger Band Width Percentile near the lower end of its range, suggesting potential volatility ahead.

Outlook

• If ETH holds above $2,438, the next target could be the 0.5 retracement at $2,920.
• A break below $2,438 may expose the price to the next support near $1,980.

The convergence of reduced exchange float and positive MVRV momentum provides a directional bias that was previously absent.