Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop to 50/50 as Bitcoin Nears $82,000

Odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell back to a coin‑flip on Friday, a sharp reversal after the probability touched 70% just a day earlier and sat as low as 37% a week before that. The swing tracks a rally that has pushed Bitcoin (BTC) toward $82,000.

Rate‑Hike Odds Even Out

The CME Group FedWatch tool now shows the September 16 meeting split almost evenly between holding the benchmark rate at 3.50‑3.75% and raising it a quarter point to 3.75‑4.00%. The odds of a hike dropped to a 50/50 split, and the market now expects the next rate increase not until March 2027 rather than December 2026.

Market Drivers

Oil prices and bond yields have been volatile amid the Iran conflict, influencing inflation expectations. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faced a split view on the hike question at Jackson Hole, and the central bank remains divided on further tightening.

Bitcoin’s Parallel Surge

Bitcoin broke above $80,000 for the first time this week, trading near $81,000 on Friday, up roughly 5% over 24 hours. A lower hike probability typically eases pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar, both of which are tailwinds for Bitcoin’s price action.

Outlook

Whether Bitcoin can maintain its rally may depend on developments in the Iran situation and upcoming inflation data ahead of the September 16 Fed decision.