Fidelity Not Declaring Bitcoin Bottom Despite Recent Rally

Fidelity Digital Assets’ fourth‑quarter crypto outlook notes that Bitcoin’s strong performance in August – the best monthly gain since November 2024 – does not guarantee the end of the current bear market.

Price Action and Market Sentiment

Bitcoin is trading near $81,000 after a 30% gain over the past month, briefly touching $82,000 late Thursday. The price remains well below the October record of $126,080 but is up roughly 30% from the sub‑$65,000 range seen in June and July.

Research Outlook

Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, outlines two scenarios:

• The recent rally may have already marked a bottom in July.
• A further decline could produce a new low around November 2026, following a historical pattern of bear‑market troughs roughly every four years.

Kuiper cautions that the four‑year cycle is not exact and should not be used as a definitive timing tool.

Flow Dynamics

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $731 million on September 3, led by BlackRock’s IBIT fund with $454 million. Ether‑focused ETFs added $141 million the same day.

Potential Catalysts

Fidelity highlights several factors that could influence the market:

• Stablecoin transaction volume now exceeds Visa’s by a factor of 2.3.
• The real‑world asset tokenization market is expanding faster in 2026 than in any prior year.
• The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) is pending a Senate cloture vote on September 15, which could bring regulatory certainty.
• A new crypto framework proposed by the SEC is also under consideration.

Technical Considerations

Galaxy Research suggests that a weekly close above the 50‑week moving average (around $82,470) would confirm the June 30 low as a bottom. The recent push to $82,000 approached this level but did not secure a closing price above it.

Outlook

While inflows and on‑chain fundamentals remain supportive, Fidelity’s research chief does not rule out a lower low in November 2026, keeping the market’s direction uncertain.