Goldman Sachs Revises Forecast, Anticipates Fed Rate Hike as Bitcoin Stalls Below $80,000

Goldman Sachs has changed its outlook on U.S. monetary policy, moving from a hold stance to anticipating a 0.25 % rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 16. The revision follows August core consumer price index (CPI) data that rose 0.3 % month‑on‑month, above the 0.2 % consensus.

Fed Rate Outlook

Researchers led by chief U.S. economist David Mericle now project the federal funds target range will shift from 3.50 %–3.75 % to 3.75 %–4.00 %. CME FedWatch odds for a September increase rose from roughly 69 % after the CPI release to about 86.5 % by the end of the trading session, with broader market pricing approaching 90 %.

Market Consensus

Goldman’s shift aligns with other major banks, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Mitsubishi UFJ and TD Securities, which also forecast a hike. The Wall Street Journal reported that investors largely expect the Fed to raise rates for the first time in three years.

Bitcoin Price Reaction

Bitcoin’s 50‑day exponential moving average briefly crossed above its 200‑day line on September 11, a “golden cross” often seen as bullish, but the price slipped back below the longer‑term average later that day. The cryptocurrency traded around $77,200, after reaching an intraday high of $79,505, and has repeatedly failed to sustain a move above $80,000 this month.

The price stalls appear linked to the hawkish environment rather than crypto‑specific factors. Analysts note that a rate hike typically triggers a risk‑off rotation, which can pressure assets like Bitcoin.

Looking Ahead

The key question now is the Fed’s path after September 16. A single 25‑basis‑point increase is unlikely to curb inflation on its own, and markets are pricing in the possibility of further tightening. If the Fed signals a series of hikes, the brief bullish signal on Bitcoin’s chart may lose momentum.