If Bessent Repeats Yellen's 2023 Money Printing Playbook, BTC Math Points to $224K

Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, argues that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is employing a money‑printing strategy similar to that used by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in 2023. Hayes suggests that if the pattern continues, Bitcoin could see a price target in the six‑figure range.

Comparison of Treasury Strategies

Hayes notes that both Yellen and Bessent faced a government with high spending levels, prompting efforts to keep the 10‑year Treasury yield below 5 %. Yellen’s response involved shifting issuance toward short‑term bills, which reduced the Federal Reserve’s reverse‑repo facility from about $2.5 trillion to roughly $100 billion. Hayes links that liquidity shift to the Bitcoin rally that began in 2023.

Bessent’s Current Actions

Under Bessent, the Treasury has doubled its long‑term bond buyback operations this month, increasing the size from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. Officials are also considering using the Treasury General Account, which holds approximately $950 billion, to fund larger purchases. The recent buybacks briefly lifted Bitcoin to around $80,000 before it settled near $78,800, mirroring a similar bond‑market reaction in August.

Bitcoin Price Projection

Hayes points out that Bitcoin moved from roughly $16,000 at the start of 2023 to over $100,000 by the end of 2024, a 2.84‑fold increase. Applying the same multiple to the current price of about $78,800 yields a projected target near $224,000. Hayes clarifies that this figure is derived from his framework and not a direct statement from him.

Factors Influencing the Projection

The 2023‑2024 rally was also supported by other events, including the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Citadel Securities has warned that aggressive Treasury buybacks could resemble financial repression, potentially weakening the dollar and increasing inflation. The ultimate impact on Bitcoin will depend on whether Bessent’s buybacks sustain momentum longer than previous attempts.