Is Altseason Starting? 2 Charts Give Opposite Answers

The ETH/BTC ratio has broken out of a long‑term declining channel, reaching a seven‑month high near 0.0334, while Bitcoin dominance rose above 60% in the same week. These two technical signals point in opposite directions for altcoins.

ETH/BTC Ratio Breakout

Ethereum (ETH) has gained about 32% against Bitcoin (BTC) since the June low of 0.02525. The weekly Binance chart on TradingView shows the ratio peaking near 0.0334, the highest level since January 2026, and breaking the descending parallel channel that had constrained it since August 2025. Resistance now sits at the 0.382 Fibonacci level (0.03213) with the next barrier at the 0.5 level (0.03426). Support at 0.031 marks the April 2026 swing high; a break below would call the breakout into question. The weekly RSI is near 60 and rising. At the time of writing ETH traded around $2,472 and BTC around $78,827, placing the ratio near 0.0313.

Bitcoin Dominance Rise

Bitcoin dominance, which measures BTC’s share of total crypto market cap, closed the week at 60.15%, breaking a descending trendline from the June 2025 high and the upper boundary of a triangle formation. The metric gained 0.91% on the week. Resistance lies at 60.50%, a level that capped dominance in April and May 2026, while support is at 58.54% with stronger support at 58%.

Implications for Altcoin Season

The Altcoin Season Index, derived from how many of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, sits at 39, down from roughly 67 in early August. A reading of 75 is needed to signal a broad altcoin rotation, suggesting the current environment does not favor altcoins.

Conversely, derivatives data from Glassnode shows that 85% of altcoins have funding rates above their mean, the highest level since Bitcoin reached record highs. This indicates optimism among altcoin traders, even though spot returns still lag Bitcoin.

Historically, altcoin seasons tend to follow new Bitcoin highs rather than drawdowns, which adds nuance to the mixed signals.

Possible Scenarios

• A weekly close above 0.03426 on ETH/BTC combined with a rejection at 60.50% dominance would suggest a genuine rotation into altcoins.
• A dominance break above 60.50% while ETH/BTC stalls would indicate a rally focused on Ethereum.
• A drop below 0.031 would imply the recent ETH/BTC move was a temporary bounce.