Two Analysts Signal Bitcoin Bottom

Two independent analysts have concluded that the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom is in, each using a different methodology. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments tracks stablecoin liquidity, while the analyst known as Root examines price cycle structure. Both signals were published in early September.

Edwards’ Hedge Ratio Signal

Edwards’ Market Hedge Ratio measures the USDT/BTC market‑cap ratio over a rolling 30‑day period. On September 4 the ratio fell to –20.42%, crossing the –20.78% threshold that Edwards marks as bullish. A falling ratio indicates capital moving from stablecoins into Bitcoin. Edwards notes that the signal remains valid only while the ratio stays below the red line, and he expects a short‑term upside lasting weeks rather than months.

Root’s Cycle Breakout

Root, publishing on Bitcoin Strategy, looks for price to reclaim three levels: the 200‑day average, the 21‑week average, and the short‑term holder cost basis. The current breakout occurred 1,314 days after the previous 2023 signal, roughly 65 days ahead of the historical 1,375‑day rhythm. Root observes that the breakout is about two months early compared with prior cycles, noting that the four‑year cycle placed the bottom four months early.

Current Price Context

At the time of writing Bitcoin trades around $79,755, down 0.23% over 24 hours, with a market cap near $1.6 trillion. The price sits just above the three key levels: the 21‑week average at $79,355 (0.5% cushion), the short‑term holder cost basis at $70,853, and the 200‑day average at $69,785. A weekly close below the $70,000 support shelf would invalidate both analysts’ theses.