JPMorgan analysts see potential for Bitcoin to outpace Gold if ETF hedging eases

JPMorgan analysts observed that inflows into both Bitcoin and gold exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) followed the Federal Reserve meeting in late July, when a so‑called debasement trade re‑emerged.

ETF inflows and recent positioning

Since that period, gold ETFs have reclaimed all of the outflows recorded earlier in the year, whereas Bitcoin ETFs have only recouped roughly half of their prior losses. The analysts said Bitcoin ETF demand has tapered in recent days, leaving room for a potential rebound if market sentiment improves.

Institutional futures exposure

Futures positions in both assets remain elevated, indicating continued institutional interest. However, a key distinction lies in short interest on the ETFs.

Short interest contrast

Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is near its highest level for the year, while short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) sits below its historical average. The put‑to‑call open‑interest ratio is also higher for IBIT than for GLD, suggesting stronger hedging activity around Bitcoin.

Implications for future support

The analysts concluded that, from a positioning perspective, the higher short interest and hedging demand in Bitcoin could turn into greater support for the cryptocurrency relative to gold if that hedging pressure eases.