Kalshi Defends Volume Figures Amid Allegations of Fake Trading

Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction‑market exchange, is facing scrutiny over the trading volume reported for its newly launched crypto perpetual futures contracts. A quantitative analyst highlighted a disparity between the reported $539 million 24‑hour volume on the ETH‑PERP contract and an open interest of only $3.1 million, suggesting possible wash trading.

Allegations and the $5,500 Trade Pattern

The analyst, known as Beni on X, noted that trades of exactly $5,500 accounted for up to 58 % of the ether perpetual volume across four days. He argued that a CFTC‑filed rebate schedule allowing a net‑zero fee for certain self‑clearing members could incentivize artificial volume inflation.

Kalshi’s Response

Kalshi’s product lead, identified as IcoBeast.eth, responded that the volume numbers are inflated by industry convention, not by fake trades. The exchange reports volume as the maximum potential payout of contracts, similar to other prediction‑market platforms. For example, buying 100,000 contracts at $0.30 each involves $30,000 of cash but is recorded as $100,000 of volume because each contract can pay $1 at settlement.

He also clarified that the fee structure, which includes a 0.3‑basis‑point maker rebate offset by a 0.3‑basis‑point taker fee, is designed to deter manipulation, and that any firm meeting CFTC requirements can become a self‑clearing member, ensuring “fair access.”

Regulatory Transparency

Kalshi emphasized that, as a Designated Contract Market, it must file all incentive programs and fee schedules publicly with the CFTC. This public filing, according to the exchange, provides a higher level of transparency compared with offshore perpetual exchanges that operate without such disclosures.

Current Status

Kalshi has not provided additional comment beyond the statements quoted on X. The debate highlights differing interpretations of volume metrics in regulated prediction‑market environments.