Kalshi’s SCOTUS Pregame: Awaiting a CFTC Rule Rewrite

New Jersey has petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a split between the Third and Ninth Circuits over state authority to regulate sports bets offered on a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)‑registered exchange. Kalshi, a prediction‑market platform, has not yet filed an opposition brief, but its executives have publicly outlined the company’s position.

Key Timeline

• Sept. 2, 2026 – New Jersey files a certiorari petition.
• Within 30 days of the petition – Kalshi’s opposition brief is due.
• Following Kalshi’s brief – New Jersey has 10 days to reply.
• After replies – The Court may schedule a conference within a month.

Kalshi’s Public Argument

Chief Executive Tarek Mansour told RotoWire that the Ninth Circuit’s ruling, which favored New Jersey, “added more legal uncertainty than there was before.” He emphasized that the disagreement centers on the interpretation of CFTC Rule 40.11, which currently bars gaming contracts.

Head of litigation Jovy Dedaj posted on X that the Ninth Circuit’s decision relies on an “incorrect interpretation of the CEA’s Special Rule.” Spokeswoman Dani Lever echoed this view to Bloomberg Law and CNBC, noting that the Ninth Circuit’s reasoning is based on a regulation that the CFTC is in the process of rewriting.

Pending CFTC Rule Change

In June, the CFTC proposed to replace the blanket prohibition on gaming contracts with a case‑by‑case public‑interest review. Under the proposal, sports contracts would be treated as gaming, while most other game‑outcome and proposition contracts would remain permissible. The commission has filed amicus briefs supporting prediction‑market operators in related state actions.

Legal Issues at Stake

The New Jersey petition frames the question as whether Dodd‑Frank preempts state regulation of sports bets offered on CFTC‑registered markets. If Kalshi’s interpretation prevails, the petition argues that state‑licensed sportsbooks could be in violation of federal law, a conclusion described as “astonishing” with significant economic and political implications.

What Comes Next

Legal analysts expect the Supreme Court to consider the pending CFTC rule revision before deciding the case. The Court could grant or deny certiorari, or request input from the Solicitor General, which could extend the timeline.