Crypto Perpetual Contracts Imply $2 Trillion Valuation for Private AI Firm Anthropic

Crypto exchanges have introduced USDT‑margined perpetual contracts that let traders speculate on the future market value of private AI companies Anthropic and OpenAI. Using an assumed share count of one billion, Binance’s ANTHROPIC/USDT contract traded at $2,120 on September 9, implying an estimated company value of roughly $2.12 trillion. Similar contracts on Bitget, Kraken, BingX, Aster and Coinbase International posted comparable prices.

How the implied valuation is calculated

Binance treats the contract price as a proxy for a per‑share price, multiplying it by an assumed one‑billion shares to derive an implied market cap. The exchange states the share‑count estimate is informational only and may be adjusted if the company’s S‑1 filing later shows a count that differs by more than 3 %.

Comparison with Anthropic’s last private valuation

Anthropic’s most recent Series H financing in May valued the company at $965 billion after raising $65 billion. The synthetic contract price therefore represents more than double that private‑market figure. Earlier in August, the contract traded between $1,600 and $1,840, implying valuations from $1.6 trillion to $1.84 trillion.

OpenAI’s parallel pricing

OpenAI’s pre‑IPO perpetual futures traded around $1,578 on Binance and $1,604 on Kraken, suggesting an implied valuation near $1.58 trillion. A separate token on Solana, issued by Prestocks, quoted a price of about $1,084 and implied a market cap of $1.34 trillion.

Legal and structural warnings

Anthropic has warned that special‑purpose vehicle (SPV) structures used to issue tokenized exposure are not authorized and may be worthless. The company stated in May that transfers of Anthropic stock into SPVs are void. Following the warning, the related token’s price fell 34 %–45 %.

Market size and future outlook

Despite the high implied valuations, open interest across all Anthropic perpetual markets totals only tens of millions of dollars, a tiny fraction of the quoted market caps. The eventual IPO filing will provide a concrete share price, serving as the reality check for these crypto‑derived valuations.