PrimeXBT: Is this the start of a Bitcoin bull run? A 2022 signal appeared before the rally

Bitcoin surged from around $64,000 to just under $80,000 within four sessions last week, prompting analysts to examine both technical signals and market flow data.

Technical divergence on the weekly chart

A bullish divergence appeared on the weekly Bitcoin chart when price made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) posted higher lows. This pattern, rare on a weekly timeframe, had been forming since the first half of 2026 and mirrors a similar divergence that preceded the bear market low in late 2022.

Daily RSI spike

On the daily chart, RSI moved from the low 40s to near 90 in under a week, a rapid rise comparable to the December 2022‑January 2023 swing that preceded a major price move.

Flow data supporting the move

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.92 billion over five sessions to 21 August, the strongest week of 2026.
• Ethereum ETFs added about $697 million, bringing combined inflows to $2.6 billion.
• Bitcoin cleared its 200‑day moving average near $69,000 for the first time in nine months.

Market context

Recent catalysts included a Treasury announcement to double long‑end liquidity support buybacks, a White House meeting with crypto executives, and the SEC’s publication of a Regulation Crypto Assets proposal. While these events coincided with the price rally, the technical divergence had been present beforehand.

Outlook

Analysts note that an overbought RSI is not a sell signal on its own, and momentum can remain elevated for weeks once a trend is underway. The durability of the move may depend on continued ETF inflows and the reopening of creation channels.