Raoul Pal predicts Bitcoin will outpace Nasdaq as rates rise

Macro investor Raoul Pal argued on September 18 that Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to outperform the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) in the coming months as higher interest rates trigger increased government liquidity.

Rate hikes and Bitcoin’s price move

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%‑4.00% in a 12‑0 vote, its first increase since July 2023. Two days later the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years. Despite expectations of a bearish market, Bitcoin rose from around $75,580 before the Fed decision to above $81,000, a level it has held.

Pal’s “fiscal dominance” thesis

Pal explained that when governments carry large debt loads, higher borrowing costs create a need for fresh liquidity to refinance that debt. He said Bitcoin is the asset most sensitive to such liquidity inflows, citing an 87% correlation with global liquidity versus 97% for the Nasdaq.

Chart evidence

• A log‑regression channel chart of BTC versus the Nasdaq 100 since 2013 shows the ratio near the bottom of its historical range after a slide in 2026.
• The weekly BTC/NDX ratio appears to have broken a downtrend, forming DeMark “13” buy signals near recent lows, which Pal interprets as seller exhaustion.
• A separate chart of total crypto market value (excluding the top 10 coins) shows the metric at roughly $226 billion, up 13.67% week‑over‑week and forming a triangle that Pal projects toward early 2027.

Broader market view

Pal noted that Bitcoin is not among his top‑10 crypto investments and suggested larger opportunities may emerge in 2027. He also referenced Zcash as a “younger sibling” of Bitcoin, indicating a tilt toward altcoins for some investors.

Key cautions

Pal reminded followers that patience is rewarded while leverage is risky, and warned against over‑leveraging positions.