Russia's regulated crypto trading could reach up to $46.4 bn in first year

SberCIB Investment Research projects that Russia’s newly regulated cryptocurrency market could process between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles in its first year, equivalent to roughly $46.4 billion at the exchange rate used by TASS.

Scope of the forecast

The estimate represents about 20 % of the current daily cryptocurrency transaction volume in Russia, which the bank cites as roughly 50 billion rubles per day (around 18 trillion rubles annually). SberCIB expects a similar share to shift onto licensed exchanges during the first year.

Regulatory framework and investor limits

The regulated market takes effect on 1 September 2026. Both qualified and non‑qualified investors must use approved intermediaries and pass a knowledge test. Non‑qualified investors are limited to purchases of 300,000 rubles (≈$3,800) per intermediary per year, while qualified investors may trade any cryptocurrency without that ceiling.

Eligible assets

The Bank of Russia has proposed Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Tether’s USDT as the initial assets eligible for organized trading by ordinary investors, based on market‑cap, volume and price‑history criteria.

Timeline for exchanges

Existing crypto‑exchange operators must register under the new licensing regime by 1 July 2027, meaning the regulated market will not reach full capacity immediately after the law’s commencement.

Long‑term outlook

SberCIB’s longer‑term projection suggests trading volume could rise to 7.5 trillion rubles (about $87 bn) by 2029, assuming continued investor demand, successful exchange registrations and final rule implementation.