Russia expects $46 B in crypto trading on regulated exchanges in first year after legalization

Russia’s largest bank, Sber, projects that regulated cryptocurrency exchanges will process roughly 4 trillion rubles (about $46 billion) in trading volume in the first year after the country’s new crypto market law takes effect.

Forecast details

Sber’s Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov told Tass that the estimate reflects a conservative outlook, noting that a significant share of crypto activity is likely to remain on unregulated platforms.

Regulatory framework

The law, signed by President Vladimir Putin on August 4, will be implemented on September 1. It defines a list of crypto assets eligible for public trading on exchanges, including Bitcoin, Ether and Tether’s USDT stablecoin.

Under the new rules, non‑qualified investors may purchase up to 300,000 rubles of crypto per year through each intermediary (broker, exchange service or asset manager). Qualified investors face no purchase limits on both exchange and over‑the‑counter markets.

Long‑term outlook

Popov added that domestic trading volumes on regulated exchanges could rise to about 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029, assuming continued use of unregulated venues.