Russian Regulated Crypto Trading Projected at $46 B in First Year

Sberbank predicts that legal crypto trading on Russian regulated exchanges will surpass 4 trillion rubles (about $46 billion) in the first year after the Bank of Russia’s new broker‑based framework takes effect.

Regulated Volume Forecast

Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the bank expects only a modest share of total crypto activity to shift to licensed brokers initially. Based on Finance Ministry data, daily transaction volume in Russia is around 50 billion rubles, roughly 18 trillion rubles annually. Sberbank’s conservative estimate places 20 % of that—3.5‑4 trillion rubles—on regulated exchanges in the first year, rising to 4.75‑5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029.

Key Regulatory Limits

• Retail investors may purchase up to 300,000 rubles (≈ $3,800) per year through a single licensed intermediary after passing a risk‑awareness test.
• Qualified investors can invest up to 3 million rubles (≈ $38,000), a ceiling that limits large‑scale trading.
• Only Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tether (USDT) are approved for trading on official Russian exchanges.

Impact on Altcoins and Unregistered Platforms

Because the regulated list excludes other altcoins, many traders are expected to continue using unregistered exchanges, which constrains the growth potential of the official market.

Timeline for Exchange Registration

Exchanges must complete registration by July 1 2027, following a transition period set by the regulator.