Solana DEX volume spike hides circular trades, bots blamed

Bitquery reported that $117.7 billion of the $201.4 billion in Solana DEX trades recorded over a 30‑day period were classified as circular or bot‑like. The analysis suggests that gross trading volume on Solana may overstate genuine demand from independent users.

Methodology and Findings

From August 24 to September 22, Bitquery examined trades priced in SOL, USDC or USDT across the pools it indexes. Its rules flagged 58.4 % of the sample as circular, with about $111.6 billion (95 % of the flagged amount) involving the same token being bought and sold in the same pool within a single transaction.

Example Transaction

On September 14, a wallet purchased the token “Claude” from a PumpSwap pool while another wallet sold a similar amount back to the same pool in the same transaction, generating roughly $2,000 of volume. Both wallets signed the transaction, indicating coordinated activity.

Concentrated Wallet Groups

Bitquery identified two clusters of wallets—one of 20 and another of 50—exhibiting highly similar trading patterns. Together these groups accounted for $26.3 billion of the flagged volume.

Comparison with Other Metrics

DefiLlama’s Solana DEX dashboard showed $75.9 billion in rolling 30‑day volume, ending two days after Bitquery’s snapshot. When Bitquery excluded its flagged trades, it reported $83.7 billion of “unflagged” volume for the same period, close to DefiLlama’s $78.8 billion figure. The two sources differ in pool coverage and methodology, so direct subtraction is not appropriate.

Liquidity Implications

The analysis highlights that reported volume does not directly reflect the liquidity available to independent traders. For example, the Claude/SOL pool involved in the highlighted transaction displayed effectively empty reserves and $0 liquidity at the time of a snapshot, suggesting limited depth for new participants.

Assessing true market depth would require detailed data on token pair, trade size, timestamps, historical reserves, and realized fills—information not provided by the volume figures alone.

Conclusion

Bitquery’s screening underscores the need for deeper scrutiny of Solana DEX activity. While a large portion of recorded volume appears to stem from circular trades and automated bots, the amount of usable liquidity for independent traders remains unmeasured.